Israel may have blunted Hezbollah’s attack, but other threats from Iran and Yemen remain

Yesterday was Arbaeen, traditionally a day of mourning for Shia Muslims.

Hezbollah, one of the world’s most prominent Shia organisations, decided to make it a day of retribution, by launching its promised revenge against Israel for its assassination of senior military commander Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital Beirut last month.

It said it launched 340 rockets into the border region of northern Israel and sent flights of explosive drones after them.

Hezbollah said the drones attacked 11 military bases, notably the headquarters of an intelligence unit near Tel Aviv and an air defence base in the mid-north.

Described in 2018 as the “world’s most heavily armed non-state actor” and listed as a terrorist organisation by Australia, the United States, Britain and others, Hezbollah has a significant arsenal that includes long-range and guided missiles.

What its Arbaeen attack appears to reveal is that Hezbollah cannot fire them when needed.

If Israel’s military is telling the truth, by launching a purported “pre-emptive strike” on Hezbollah missile sites, the Jewish state has had a great intelligence success and blunted an attack it had been fearing for weeks.

Hezbollah’s promised revenge was short and caused one Israeli death.

But, as is usually the case between these enemies, it is possible for both sides to claim victory.

What we know — and don’t know — about the strikes

Hezbollah says its attack was always going to be focused on specific military sites, mostly near the border with Lebanon, and that Israel prevented nothing.

The group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said Israel bombed “empty valleys” and only damaged two fixed launch sites that had already been evacuated.

“It [Israel’s strikes] had no impact whatsoever on our military operation today,” he said in an hour-long speech that was part apology to the Lebanese people, and part justification for making them suffer 11 months of Israeli retaliatory strikes, since Hezbollah starting firing rockets and drones at Israel in support of Hamas last October.

The Israeli military said its strikes yesterday prevented thousands of missiles, mostly short-range, from being launched.

Israel has been preparing for Hezbollah’s “revenge” for more three weeks now and for a potential war with the group since October 8.

The Israelis have long considered Hezbollah a far bigger threat than Hamas in Gaza, focusing more attention and resources on finding and tracking their weapons, so it does seem more likely that Israel’s version of events is true.

The big question is whether this is the end of the matter.

It’s difficult to verify whether each side has seriously hurt the other, or if they even wanted to.

Reporting of any damage to Israeli military installations is censored and it is far too dangerous to approach Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon to assess if they’ve been hit.

Israel and Hezbollah also have a history of publicly talking up their attacks while privately indicating they do not wish to escalate further.

‘This is not the end of the story’

Hassan Nasrallah said Hezbollah will evaluate the impact of the Arbaeen operation and decide later.

He appeared to be saying Hezbollah has finished — at least for now.

“Let everyone relax. He who wants to go home, go home,” he said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, conscious that tens of thousands of Israelis remain displaced from their homes in the north, had a different view.

“This is not the end of the story,” he said.

Hezbollah might have finished its retaliation, but Iran’s promised “harsh punishment” for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, is yet to come.

Nasrallah indicated both Iran and the Houthi militia in Yemen, which Iran supports, are planning their own attacks on Israel.

So Israel may have blunted one attack, but other threats remain.

One reason Hezbollah said it waited so long to attack was that it wanted to give the Gaza ceasefire negotiations the best chance to succeed.

If a ceasefire was signed between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah could claim its pressure on Israel worked and could cease its attacks.

Iran could also say it did not want to jeopardise any truce.

The question is then what Israel would consider a victory.