Home Uncategorized Basking in the warmest of Washington welcomes, Albanese is walking a diplomatic tightrope between the US and China

Basking in the warmest of Washington welcomes, Albanese is walking a diplomatic tightrope between the US and China

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Just before the cameras and journalists jammed into the Oval Office were bustled out of the meeting between the US president and Australian prime minister, Joe Biden offered an unprompted observation.

“I was asked by Xi Jinping a couple of years ago why I was working so hard with your country,” Biden noted. “I said we’re a Pacific nation. He looked at me and I said, ‘Yeah, we’re a Pacific  nation, the United States, and we’re going to stay that way.”

A few hours later, at a joint press conference in the Rose Garden, it was there again — another reference to China.

“Just this past week, PRC (People’s Republic of China) vessels acted dangerously and unlawfully as our Philippine friends conducting a routine resupply mission within their own exclusive economic zone,” Biden said, pointing to the latest incident in the South China Sea involving aggressive action by Chinese ships.

Coming just nine days before Anthony Albanese’s much-anticipated visit to Beijing, there was no mistaking the message: the Biden Administration remains focused on China despite everything else going on in the world and wants its close ally Australia to remain just that — close.

The prime minister’s visit to China at the end of next week will be the first for an Australian leader in seven years. It marks the 50th anniversary of Gough Whitlam recognising China and marks the culmination of an effort since Albanese took office to “normalise” a difficult relationship. It’s a process that’s involved China gradually dropping trade sanctions and freeing Australian journalist Cheng Lei.

To say Albanese is walking a diplomatic tightrope as he mends fences with China, while drawing ever closer to the US, is putting it mildly.

Biden strives to strike the right tone

Biden and members of his administration have gone out of their way during Albanese’s official visit this week to demonstrate how seriously they treat the relationship with Australia, particularly after the president was forced to cancel a visit in May due to the latest round of dysfunction in congress.

This week it might have been easy for the White House to scale back the Albanese visit, or even delay it altogether, given the Middle East is teetering on the edge.

After all, the US has two aircraft carriers deployed to the region, and a full-court diplomatic press underway to avoid an already dire conflict spiralling into something unimaginably worse.

Yet Biden was determined to lay on the warmest of Washington welcomes. Sure, adjustments were made to ensure the state dinner hit the right tone amidst this grim global backdrop. The B-52s band was originally booked to belt out some favourite hits at the dinner but were benched in favour of a more sombre military ensemble. Everything else though went ahead. At least everything the administration could control.

A private dinner at the White House, the grand ceremonial welcome on the South Lawn, announcements on greater cooperation on critical minerals, artificial intelligence, and satellite launches. It was all rolled out, despite the enormous demands on the administration right now to focus elsewhere.

Indeed, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby briefed visiting Australian journalists during the week, letting them know the Indo-Pacific remains “right at the top of the list” of priorities.

By contrast, the US Congress was doing little this week to show its priorities laid with the Indo-Pacific, AUKUS, the Australian prime minister, or anything other than its own infighting.

This morning, a new speaker of the house was finally elected, ending weeks of stalemate. Staunch conservative Mike Johnson of Louisiana has been elected to the powerful post, second in line to the presidency (after the vice president).

Johnson is a Trump loyalist and fellow “2020 election denier”. In other words, the speaker of the house doesn’t accept the results of the election that made Joe Biden president. Not a great omen for an end to the turmoil in US politics.

There are no mixed views of AUKUS in Beijing

The absence of a speaker until today meant an invitation couldn’t be issued in time for Anthony Albanese to deliver an address to a joint sitting of congress. It was a blow for the prime minister, given it’s congress, not the president, he needs to win over on AUKUS.

He’ll still meet key members of congress tomorrow, trying to convince them to hurry up and pass legislation necessary to allow nuclear submarine and other defence technology to be transferred to Australia.

The legislation is being held up by a group of mainly Republicans, but some Democrats too. They’re worried local shipyards will be too stretched to build enough nuclear submarines to meet the demands of both the US and Australia under the agreement.

Biden is offering to tip in an extra $US3.4 billion to boost production capacity if congress will agree. Australia has also committed $3 billion to help expand capacity in the US.

It’s unclear whether that will be enough to secure the deal.

Both Biden and Albanese express confidence this will all be done and dusted by the end of the year. Neither can give any guarantee.

If this does drag into the 2024 presidential election year, the nervousness will start to build on the Australian side. AUKUS supporters in congress suspect the deal would likely survive under any second Trump administration, but no one can be too sure.

In nine days, the prime minister will arrive in Beijing, where there are no mixed views over AUKUS. It’s simply seen as a terrible idea.

China sees itself as the target of AUKUS, and describes the agreement between the US, UK, and Australia as a “path of error and danger”.

And the inability of congress to finalise the deal so far will only give China an incentive to keep the pressure on.

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